Stat Geek – Volume 2

11/3/17

Kickers or Defense?

If you read our first Stat Geek post you will remember we like defenses.  But every week we find ourselves asking whether to go with Kicker or a Defense?  So we looked at some high level stats through Week 7 and this is what we found:

Metrics Kickers Defense
Ave points/game 7.47 7.57
Pts/Salary $625 $595
# of times scored 20 pts & above 4 15
# of times scored 15 pts & above 26 28
# of times scored 10 pts & above 77 56

In short, while it might cost you a little more money, if you’re looking for consistency you pick a kicker; but if you’re looking to score big then take a chance on a defense. 

Stat Geek – Volume 1

10-13-17

We at 3PAK love to keep things simple, but we also love stats.  So occasionally we goober through the mounds of data we have to see if we can find any information that might help players in a salary based league.  We’ll start with some easy stuff and then see where we go.

The information below is based on pure statistics and nothing concerning this week’s match ups or who’s distracted because of a looming suspension, etc.  We simply crunched the data into a simple and easy to use format that hopefully everyone will find useful. 

Save Me the Money

In a salary based game like 3PAK, you have to make every dollar count.  So you have to get players that maximize points scored verses dollars spent.  The PPG (Point Per Game) value next to each player is that average points scored by that player per game this season.  So you want to pick a player with the highest PPG for the least amount of money.  For instance, this week Jered Goff and Trever Siemian both have a salary value of $7,500, but Goff averages 10.99 PPG while Siemian averages 14.6 ppg.  Siemian has 32% more value than Goff. This week’s match up probably affects the salary, but the PPG doesn’t lie.  You can use this approach for any player at any position!

Defenses

We love defenses because their never injured, you can actually cheer for a particular team verses just a player and their cheap.  The following are the top 9 defenses in fantasy points scored and the list might surprise you:

 

Team PPG Week 6 Salary Salary/PPG
Jacksonville 16.4 $4,900 2.98
Detroit 12.2 $4,500 3.75
Baltimore 10.6 $4,900 4.62
Pittsburg 9.8 $4,600 4.70
Buffalo 9.8 Bye
Seattle 9.6 Bye
LA Rams 9.4 $4,900 5.21
Washington 9.3 $4,700 5.05
Kansas City 9.0 $4,800 5.33

That’s not a typo, yes Jacksonville and Detroit. Pittsburg is a bargain too.  Here is another case of value; Jacksonville and Baltimore cost the same but the Jags are a 150% value over the Ravens.

Some defenses are givers.  You won’t find this info from the player selection screen.  The following are 6 defenses that give up the most fantasy points to their opponents so far this year:

Team PPG
New England 108
Indy 98
Tampa Bay 93
Dallas 92
Tennessee 92
San Francisco 90

So in a pinch, find players from teams that are playing AGAINST the above teams.

Targets per player

Sometime you’ll hear people talk about targets.  Targets are the number of times a QB throws a ball to a Running Back, Tight End or Receiver.  The higher the targets, the higher the opportunity a player has to score.  Targets inside the Red Zone (20 yards from the goal line) are even more important.  In short, the number of targets reflect where the QB of a team likes to go when it’s time to score.  Let find out

Red Zone Targets, Wide Receiver (6 minimum)

Player Targets Salary
L Fitzgerald, Arz 10 $6,600
D Adams, GB 10 $7,200
D Bryant, Dal 9 Bye
C Hogan, NE 9 $7,500
J Nelson, GB 8 $8,100
A Hurns, Jax 8 $5,700
C Kupp, LAR 8 $5,900
A Cooper, Oak 7 $6,400
D Hopkins, Hou 7 $8,000
K Allen, LAC 7 $7,200
J Smith-Schuster, Pit 7 $5,200
A Brown, Pit 6 $9,200
M Gordan, LAC 6 $8,400
T Hilton, Indy 6 $7,800
E Sanders, Den 6 $6,700

Schuster has more Red Zone targets than Brown at half the cost? If you need a value pick, you might take a look at some of the above players.

Red Zone Targets, Tight Ends (6 minimum)

Player Targets Salary
T Kelce, KC 7 $7,200
J Witten, Dal 6 Bye
Z Miller, Chi 6 $5,000
R Gronkowski, NE 6 $8,000
Z Ertz, Phi 6 $7,000
G Kittle, SF 6 $5,300
J Graham, Sea 6 Bye
C Brate, TB 6 $5,900


Tight Ends get targeted almost as much as Receivers and trade at a little bit of a discount

Red Zone Carries, Running Backs (10 minimum)

Player Carries Salary PPG
L Bell, Pit 22 $9,000  18.2
M Gillislee, NE 18 $6,200  11.4
C Hyde, SF 18 $6,700  11.3
E Elliott, Dal 17 Bye
T Gurley, LAR 17 $8,400  15.8
L Fournette, Jax 16 $8,600  16.6
D Freeman, Atl 14 $8,500  15.9
J Allen, Balt 14 $5,800  11.0
K Hunt, KC 14 $9,300  16.9
C Anderson, Den 13 $7,000  13.7
L McCoy, Buf 12 Bye
J Stewart, Car 11 $5,400  9.2
L Miller, Hou 10 $6,800  12.9
F Gore, Indy 10 $5,800  7.9
M Gordan, LAC 10 $8,400  14.3
L Blount, Phi 10 $5,600  8.1

 Decent options at the top for under $6,700 salary.

So that’s it for now from Geek Town.  We hope you found some of the above helpful. We might put out a few more additions later this year. Let us know what you think.  Good Luck!